Sports bettors often choose wagers on future outcomes based on recent form, because there’s logic in assuming that if a team is on a hot streak, it’s likely to continue. Unfortunately, recent form is misleading when taken in isolation, and that’s especially true in the NHL, where many other variables are better indicators of how a team will perform in upcoming games.
Most importantly, it’s possible to make a more accurate assessment of recent form as it applies to future face-offs if you’re also paying attention to schedule dynamics. Here’s why this matters.
Fatigue Can Change a Team’s Form
The more games an NHL team plays in a window of time, the greater the wear and tear on the players, and the more tired they’ll be for any upcoming games. Fatigue hurts performance in the NHL more than in many other sports because the game is so physical and fast-paced, and if players are even slightly off the pace because they’ve had little time to rest between games, it can create a rough streak of form for the entire team.
That’s why fans need to look at excellent NHL odds to get a gauge of whether bookmakers believe a team is likely to suffer because of the intense schedule that’s ahead of them. Even if their form up to a particular point in the season has been solid, a sudden string of back-to-back games can disrupt this.
Why Goaltender Rest Matters in NHL
NHL goalies take the brunt of the punishment in games, and it’s a position that often gets switched to a backup player in cases where the schedule becomes more crowded than usual. Resting a top-tier goaltender has its drawbacks, of course, but playing a tired first-stringer on consecutive days is just as likely to lead to a dip in form that wouldn’t otherwise be obvious from the statistics alone.
Opponent Strength Can Distort Recent Results
Recent form’s power to mislead continues when you consider that an apparent hot streak might not be down to an NHL team suddenly finding its feet, but rather could stem from the simple fact that its recent opponents have been weak. Injuries that hurt rival sides, or cases where a new coach has come in and is only just getting into the swing of rebuilding a squad, make it possible for some teams to have a great run without really being put under enough pressure to reveal weaknesses and vulnerabilities in their own setup.
Schedule Context Makes Recent Form Clearer
The last point to make about how scheduling is useful when working out whether to judge a team on its recent form stems from travel. A team that’s going to be traveling across the country to take on teams in the coming weeks will be more physically fatigued and mentally frazzled than one whose schedule keeps it closer to home.
All that’s to say is that focusing on the win-loss record of an NHL side can be interesting in isolation, but it isn’t that informative. Taking a bigger-picture approach and factoring in the schedule’s impact on future performances, alongside other variables, enables better decision-making on the part of bettors and fans alike.
